【正版南方双彩网】发展中国家兴起水电站热潮 环境社会风险堪忧

While some dams in the United States and Europe are being decommissioned, a dam-building boom is underway in developing countries. It is a shift from the 1990s, when amid concerns about environmental impacts and displaced people, multilateral lenders like the World Bank backed away from large hydroelectric power projects.美国和欧洲荒废一些大坝时，发展中国家却引发了修建大坝的热潮。上世纪90年代的趋势再次发生了根本性转变，当时由于担忧影响环境和居民流离失所的问题，世界银行(World Bank)等多边借贷机构都开始规避大型水电项目。World hydropower production will grow from 4,000 terawatt hours now — about the annual power output of the United States — to 4,670 terawatt hours in 2020, according to Maria van der Hoeven, executive director of the International Energy Agency, in Paris. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts that hydropower generation will double in China between 2008 and 2035, and triple in India and Africa.总部坐落于巴黎的国际能源署（International Energy Agency，全称IEA）的总干事玛丽亚·范德胡芬(Maria van der Hoeven)回应，到2020年，全球水力发电量将从现在的4万亿千瓦时——约相等于美国一年的发电量——提升到4.67万亿千瓦时。

政府间气候变化专门委员会（Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change，全称IPCC）预测，中国的水力发电量在2008至2035年间不会翻一番，印度和非洲的水力发电量将不会减少两倍。The World Bank and other international lenders were the most important financiers of large dams before the ’90s lull. But although the World Bank has in recent years increased its investment in hydropower from a low of just a few million dollars in 1999 to about $1.8 billion in 2014, it still funds only 2 percent of hydropower project investment today.世界银行及其他国际借贷机构曾是水坝项目最重要的资助者，但它们从20世纪90年代以来增加了投资。虽然近年来，世界银行又减少了对水力发电项目的投资，从1999年的数百万美元，提升到了2014年的18亿美元（约合110亿元人民币），但该银行的投资金额在水电项目的整体投资规模中只占到2%。Picking up the slack are national development banks from emerging countries such as China, Brazil, Thailand, and India, and private investors. Public-private partnerships are on the rise, generally with the support of regional development banks.其余资金则来自中国、巴西、泰国、印度等新兴国家的国家开发银行，以及私营部门投资者。

公私合作的模式也在大大发展，而且一般受到地区研发银行的反对。“Who benefits from these infrastructure projects?” asked Jason Rainey, executive director of the anti-dam group International Rivers, in Berkeley, Calif.总部设于加利福尼亚州伯克利的国际河流的组织(International Rivers)赞成修建大坝，该的组织的继续执行主任贾森· 雷尼(Jason Rainey) 问道，“谁不会从这些基础设施项目中受益？”Some well-documented answers: The Xayaburi Dam in Laos will sell power to Thailand, while threatening the subsistence livelihoods of people who have long lived along the Mekong River; the Inga 3 dam in the Democratic Republic of Congo will sell power to mining companies and to South Africa, rather than to the 96 percent of Congolese who lack access to electricity.以下是一些众所周知的答案：老挝的沙耶武里水坝(Xayaburi Dam)将向泰国购电，但对那些长年生活在湄公河沿岸的民众的生计造成了威胁；刚果民主共和国的英加三期(Inga-3)水电大坝的供电对象是矿业公司和南非，而不是刚果民众，96%的刚果人用不上电。A 2012 report from International Rivers found that Chinese companies or financiers were involved in 308 dam projects in 70 different countries, many in Southeast Asia, but also some in Africa, Latin America and Pakistan. Aside from supplying electricity to investing countries, projects can also offer a type of vertical integration to power funders’ industrial projects, such as mining or smelting. “China isn’t the only one working this model,” Mr. Rainey said: “The Brazilian Development Bank has financed more dam projects in Latin America than the Inter-American Development Bank. India is investing in hydropower in Nepal and Bhutan.”国际河流2012年公布的一份报告认为，中国公司或投资方参予了70个国家的308个大坝项目，其中有很多在东南亚，但也有一些地处非洲、拉丁美洲和巴基斯坦。除了为投资国供电，大坝项目还不会为投资者的工业项目，比如矿业或冶金项目，获取了一种横向统合的模式。

“中国不是唯一采行这种模式的国家，”雷尼说道。“巴西研发银行(The Brazilian Development Bank)在拉丁美洲资助的大坝项目比美洲开发银行(Inter-American Development Bank)多。印度也正在尼泊尔、不丹投资水力发电项目。”Nancy Alexander, director of the Economic Governance Program for the Heinrich Bll Foundation, a public policy institute in Berlin, said she attributed this trend partly to a Group of 20 initiative that prioritized infrastructure investment as a path to economic stability.柏林的公共政策研究机构海因里希·伯尔基金会(Heinrich Bll Foundation)的经济管理项目(Economic Governance Program)主任南茜·亚历山大(Nancy Alexander)回应，她将这种趋势部分归咎于20国集团明确提出的一项计划，即优先考虑到基础设施方面的投资，以此作为一种增进经济平稳的方式。

The initiative encourages joint financing by multilateral development banks and other sources. A World Bank report on hydropower this year said that the bank now “typically acts as a ‘convener,’ bringing other financiers to the table.” It said that over the past five years, the World Bank Group had funded about half of the costs of projects that it financed, with the balance coming from host country governments, the private sector and other development banks.该计划希望多边研发银行及其他机构联合获取资金。世界银行今年公布了有关水力发电的报告，称该银行现在“一般来说是当作‘召集人’，招募其他投资方获取融资”。报告称之为，在过去五年中，世界银行集团获取的资金，在其资助项目花费的成本中占到了约一半，其余资金则来自项目所在国政府、私营部门，及其他研发银行。

Ms. Alexander said the problem with this model is that it “derisks” mega-projects for the private sector and draws in institutional investors like pension funds and mutual funds. “Very often this means privatizing profits and outsourcing risks to the public,” she said.亚历山大回应，这种模式的问题在于，它避免了私营部门投资大型项目的风险，还更有养老基金、联合基金等机构投资者展开投资。她说道，“这一般来说意味著利润私有化，将风险引给公众。

”Those risks can be both significant and hidden, she added. Project backers may cite national security or business confidentiality to avoid sharing information with the public.她还回应，这些风险可能会十分大，并且很隐密。项目投资者可能会以国家安全性或商业机密为由，不向公众透露信息。

National development banks such as the Brazilian Development Bank, China Development Bank and the Development Bank of Southern Africa “have abysmal records in terms of transparency and in terms of social and environmental safeguards,” Ms. Alexander said.各国的研发银行，比如巴西研发银行、中国研发银行，以及南部非洲开发银行(Development Bank of Southern Africa)，“在社会影响和环境保护方面的透明度，仍然都极为差劲，”亚历山大说道。The reduced involvement of global institutions allows countries to ignore international concerns. Although international backers have pulled out, for example, public-private funding has permitted Turkey to go ahead with its Ilisu Dam on the Tigris, defying Unesco’s objections that it would flood Hasankeyf, a town with 10,000 years of history. Turkish dam projects have also played a role in drying out Iraqi wetlands downstream and exacerbating tensions in Syria.全球性机构的参予增加了，各国就可能会漠视国际社会的担忧。比如，土耳其在底格里斯河上修筑伊利苏大坝(Ilisu Dam)的项目，由于水位将水淹有数1万年历史的古城哈桑凯伊夫，而受到了联合国教科文组织(Unesco)的赞成。

尽管国际投资方早已撤离，但来自公共部门和私营部门的资金，却仍在推展这个项目之后展开。土耳其的一些水坝项目也在一定程度上造成处在下游的伊拉克湿地干枯，并激化了叙利亚的紧张局势。

Yet, although dam investment is coming from diversified sources, activist organizations still look to the World Bank to set the standard for environmental and social protections. At the World Bank’s annual meetings this autumn, 318 civil society organizations from 98 countries criticized its proposal for a new environmental and social framework, saying it would weaken existing safeguards. Among other things, they said, it would undermine the rights of indigenous people and of those displaced by projects, fail to protect workers or guarantee human rights and not meaningfully address climate change.然而，尽管大坝投资的来源日益多元化，但提倡的组织依然期望世界银行能原作社会影响和环境保护的标准。今年秋天，在世界银行年度会议上，来自98个国家的318个民间团体，对该机构明确提出的一个新的环境和社会框架传达了抨击，称之为这不会巩固现有的保护措施。他们明确提出，这不会伤害原住民的权利、伤害因项目而流离失所的居民的权利。该框架也没能维护工人、保障人权，未有意义地应付气候变化问题。

“They have a lot of weasel language that softens and dampens safeguards,” Mr. Rainey said.雷尼说道：“议案中有很多阴险的措辞，软化并巩固了保障性的条文。”Amy Stilwell, a spokeswoman for the World Bank, said the proposal was just a starting point. A second phase of consultations, including those with the petitioning groups, will begin soon, with a second draft expected in 2015, she said.世界银行发言人艾米·斯迪威尔(Amy Stilwell)说道，该议案只是一个起点。她回应，该机构迅速就不会开始第二阶段的咨询，还包括与抗议团体磋商，第二稿预计于2015年已完成。Part of the reason dams are back in favor, despite ongoing concerns, is the increasing awareness of climate change and the need for cleaner energy sources, said Ken Adams, president of the International Hydropower Association, an industry group based in London. Hydropower can also balance the electricity load and store energy to support intermittent renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar, he said.国际水电协会(International Hydropower Association)是一个总部设于伦敦的行业团体，其主席尼克·亚当斯(Ken Adams)说道，尽管关于水坝的忧虑仍然不存在，但由于人们对气候变化日益推崇，也必须更加洗手的能源，修建水坝又受到了注目。

而且水电还可以均衡电力负荷、储存电量，为风能、太阳能等间歇性的可再生能源获取反对，他说道。The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change supports hydropower to slow climate change, calling it a “proven, mature, predictable technology,” in a 2011 report.IPCC反对用水电来减慢气候变化。在2011年的一份报告中，IPCC称之为，“它是已取得事实证明的、成熟期的、可预测的技术。

”Hydropower’s reputation for low emissions, however, has come under scientific scrutiny in recent years. Reservoirs behind dams flood vegetation, which decays, releasing methane and soil carbon. A 2012 study, in the journal Nature Climate Change, concluded that “emissions from tropical hydropower are often underestimated and can exceed those of fossil fuel for decades.”然而，近几年来，水电“排放量较低”的众说纷纭遭到了科学上的挑战。大坝背后的水库不会水淹植被，使之枯萎，释放出来甲烷和土壤碳。2012年，《大自然·气候变化》(Nature Climate Change)杂志公开发表了一项涉及研究，其结论是，“热带水电站的排放量经常被高估，它们有可能在长达几十年的时间里，多达化石燃料的排放量。

”The study emphasized that the effect is more pronounced in tropical ecosystems. Yet hydropower is typically presumed to be emission-free, Mr. Rainey said. “There is no mechanism within dam sanctioning processes, or any of the funding models, that methane emissions be monitored in dam projects,” he said, adding that even carbon market instruments such as the Clean Development Mechanism help to fund large dams without considering their carbon footprints.这项研究特别强调，在热带生态系统中，这种效应不会更为显著。雷尼回应，人们一般来说指出水电会有碳排放。“在水坝审核申请和融资模式中，都没监测水坝项目中甲烷排放量的机制，”他说道。

即使是碳市场工具，比如“洗手发展机制”(Clean Development Mechanism)，也在协助大型水坝融资，却并没考虑到它们的碳足迹。Mr. Adams said his association’s voluntary standards could offer a solution. Its Hydropower Sustainability Assessment Protocol, drafted with input from various stakeholders, including the World Bank, provides a framework for hydropower developers to monitor and benchmark their projects. William Rex, a hydropower specialist at the World Bank said: “We see it as a really useful tool.”亚当斯说道，他所在的协会明确提出的自愿性标准可以获取一种解决方案。这套标准取名为“水电可持续性评估规程”(Hydropower Sustainability Assessment Protocol)，由多个利益涉及方草拟，其中还包括世界银行。这套规程获取了一个框架，供水电研发方监测自己的项目，并展开基准较为。

世界银行的水电专家威廉姆·雷克斯(William Rex)说道：“我们指出这是一种十分简单的工具。”Mr. Adams said his association would like to see financial institutions encourage borrowers to use it. “Any energy source is going to have its good side and downside,” said Mr. Adams. “But I believe that if done intelligently and appropriately, the downsides to hydro projects can be managed.”亚当斯回应，协会期望看见各大金融机构希望借款方用于该规程。“任何能源都有利有弊，”亚当斯说道。

“但我坚信，如果明智而有助于地研发，那么水利工程带给的负面影响是可以掌控的。

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